Thursday, March 29, 2012

Analysis: US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran

Iran will recover within six months. Uranium enrichment site at Natanz (Reuters)
Obama betraying Israel? US making deliberate effort to hinder Iran strike by leaking classified info, intelligence assessments, says Ron Ben-Yishai in special Ynet report
Ron Ben-Yishai
Published: 03.29.12, 14:21 / Israel News

The United States is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran: The US Administration recently shifted into high gear in its efforts to avert an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the end of the year. The flood of reports in the American media in recent weeks attests not only to the genuine US fear that Israel intends to realize its threats; moreover, it indicates that the Obama Administration has decided to take its gloves off.

Indeed, in recent weeks the Administration shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran. This “surgical strike” is undertaken via reports in the American and British media, but the campaign’s aims are fully operational: To make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF to carry out a strike, and what’s even graver, to erode the IDF’s capacity to launch such strike with minimal casualties.

Related articles:

The first and most important American objective is to eliminate potential operational options available to the IDF and the State of Israel. I have no intention of detailing or even hinting to the options which the US government aims to eliminate by exposing them in the media. A large part of the reports stem from false information or disinformation, and there is no reason to reveal to the Iranians what’s real and what isn’t. However, it is blatantly clear that reports in the past week alone have caused Israel substantive diplomatic damage, and possibly even military and operational damage.

אף-16 ישראלי. דו"ח הקונגרס הוא אוצר בלום של מידע (צילום: gettyimages)
Israeli F-16 (Photo: Gettyimages)

Another Administration objective is to convince the Israeli public that an Iran strike (including a US attack) will not achieve even the minimum required to justify it; that is, a delay of at least 3-5 years in Iran’s nuclear program. A lengthy postponement would of course justify the suffering on Israel’s home front, while a six-month delay – as argued by a US Congress report – does not justify the risks.

The six-month figure was meant for the Israeli public, so that it would press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to avoid a strike, whose futility the Americans are trying to prove in every way possible. At the same time, the campaign aims to erode the validity of demands voiced by many members of Congress and Senate – both Democrats and Republicans - who criticize the American president’s inaction.

The Congress report published Wednesday is maligned by several inaccuracies, in terms of both analysis and information. However, this makes no difference. The aim was to make headlines in the Israeli and Washington media, rather than an in-depth analysis, which isn’t possible as Congress researchers in Washington do not have access to all the relevant information, fortunately.

Congress in Iran’s service

The third objective of the recent publications is to scare the Israeli public via an apocalyptic account of possible retaliation by Iran and its “clients.” This effort also aims to press Israeli decision-makers not to act (including the mention in the Congress report of the accurate fact that Israel’s home front is not adequately prepared to sustain a blow.) Some observers would argue that these reports are not damaging, but rather, grant the Israeli threat validity, thereby serving Western representatives in upcoming negotiations with Iran. So what’s wrong with that?

The damage has to do with the revelation of secret information and assessments that would require an expensive, risky intelligence effort for the Iranians to acquire. Indeed, the Iranians already realize that the West and Israel possess plenty of up-to-date information on Iran’s nuclear project, including centrifuge workshops in Tehran homes. The Ayatollah regime can also predict possible attack routes and methods by Israel and the US.
מפת הכורים הגרעיניים באיראן. גבול אזרבייג'אן מצפון-מערב
A map of Iran's nuclear facilities  

However, any rookie intelligence officer knows that there is a huge difference between unconfirmed estimates and solid facts or IDF aims and capabilities. Any Iranian intelligence analyst who reads the latest US Congress report or the Foreign Policy report will find invaluable information there. The overwhelming majority of the information has already been published, yet instead of forcing the Iranians to piece together all the assessments themselves, the Congress report offers them everything in one place, including detailed analysis.

Fortunately, as noted, Congress researchers and those who leaked the information to them apparently have some trouble in terms of reading comprehension.

Betraying an ally

To sum up, the American publications caused the following damage:

  • Iran now has a decent picture of what Israel’s and America’s intelligence communities know about Tehran’s nuclear program and defense establishment, including its aerial defenses. 

  • The Iranians now know about the indications that would be perceived by Washington and Jerusalem as a “nuclear breakthrough”. Hence, Iran can do a better job of concealment. 

  • The reports make it more difficult to utilize certain operational options. These options, even if not considered thus far, could have been used by the US in the future, should Iran not thwart them via diplomatic and military means. 

Needless to say, this is not how one should be treating an ally, even if this is a relationship between a superpower and a satellite state. The targeted assassination campaign currently undertaken by the US government also sharply contradicts President Obama’s declaration at the AIPAC Conference, whereby he and the US recognize Israel’s sovereign right to defend itself by itself. One cannot utter these words and a moment later exposes Israel’s vulnerabilities and possible strike routes to its enemies.

Indeed, there is a difference between legitimate persuasion efforts and practical steps to thwart Israeli plans and eliminate them.

For a total of seven years, I served as Yedioth Ahronoth’s reporter in Washington, so I know very well that with a few exceptions, the US Administration knows how to prevent leaks to the media if it so wishes. This is the case even when dealing with former officials, and most certainly when dealing with current government officials. What we are seeing here is not a trickle of information, but rather, a powerful current, a true flood that leaves no doubt as to the existence of an orchestrated media campaign with clear aims.

There is another interesting aspect to this story from an American point of view: In 2002, when President George W. Bush sought to embark on war in Iraq, US intelligence agencies provided him with all the “evidence” that Saddam Hussein is developing large quantities of nuclear and chemical weapons. Following the war, when no traces of such weapons were discovered in Iraq, a Congress inquiry found that US intelligence officials were so eager to satisfy their president that they cut corners and relied on unsubstantiated information.

Given American media reports in recent days, one must wonder whether history is repeating itself. Could it be that the US intelligence community is providing President Obama with what he needs for political reasons – that is, information meant to curb an Israeli or American strike on Iran?


Bee's Notes:

The following links will lead you to more information:








In closing, I know that Israel will never place the blame of this leak on the USA, or the Obama administration.  The USA is Israel's most important "partner" and ally.  However, if there were plans to use air bases in Azerbaijan, those plans are now doomed, as Azerbaijan has just stated that they will not allow Israel to use their land - which demonstrates how harmful "leaks" are to the very security of our ally.  The Obama administration says, "Do not strike - give diplomacy a chance, or wait until after elections", while Israel considers it her duty to protect her citizens and land from the threats of a nuclear holocaust - threats that Iran will seek to fulfill if she is ever allowed nuclear capabilities.  
What doesn't this administration understand about the intentions of the Iranian leaders?
If these leaks were for the sole purpose of undermining Israel's ability to protect all that she holds dear, this would be the most unforgivable act by one who said at the AIPAC Conference,  "I have your back, Israel".
I ask you, "Are there limits to friendships?" 


UPDATE: ... POSTED ON "YID WITH LID"  Is Obama Signaling a Second Administration Even MORE Anti-Israel?
President Obama tells the Russian president to give him some space because once he doesn't have to run again he will have have more flexibility. Obama's deputy campaign director avoids answering whether or not the President has made similar assurances to Israel's enemies. It would have been very easy for her to say, of course not. 
The state department refused to say that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, which is no change...but they also refuse to say that any part of Jerusalem even the part inside the "green line,"was part of Israel.
And finally, we learn that President Obama is "sneaking around" behind Israel's "back," to sabotage the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran (which Israel has not yet decided to do).
Is this Obama's pre-election foreshadowing of what he will do once he has the flexibility of not having to run again? Is Obama sabotaging Israel under the radar today and waiting to do even worse more blatantly later?  Is the subtle shift in the US position on Jerusalem a signal of the pressure Obama wil deliver in a second Obama administration?  
The only way we will know for sure is if he is re-elected...but if (God-Forbid) that happens, for Israel (and for the United States) it will be too late.






Posted by at